It’s time to preview the 2013 World Series!
…After the jump, of course:
Hitting:
When looking at team statistics as a whole, this seems to favor Boston. Their lineup had a better WAR, scored more runs per game, better batting average, better on-base, better slugging, better OPS, better OPS+ (OPS adjusted for league and ballpark), and most traditional stats as well.
However, this is somewhat misleading, as the Red Sox, as a team in the AL, didn’t have to deal with having pitchers hit as much. When you remove the pitchers, the two teams have nearly identical batting averages that round to .278, and while Boston does continue to hold leads in the other stats, those leads aren’t as great as they once were, and probably are even less now that Allen Craig has returned to the Cardinal lineup. Still, Boston still looks better on paper and statistically, although certainly not enough where it’s anywhere close to a clear-cut advantage- it could easily be erased if, say, Carlos Beltran continues to be the best-postseason-hitter-of-all-time Carlos Beltran and not the watching-the-final-strike-of-the-Mets-season-go-by-him-without-swinging Carlos Beltran.
Advantage: Slight Boston.
Starting Pitching
At first glance, it looks like the Cardinals hold the advantage in the first parts of the rotation, but that as far as depth is concerned the Red Sox have the advantage. And that probably is true, making the first two games key to the series, as while Adam Wainwright and the newly-born star of Michael Wacha are clearly better than Jon Lester and John Lackey, it’s not as clear that Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn are better than Clay Buchholz and Jake Peavy. And it’s also unlikely that Shelby Miller will be thrown into the fire for the Cardinals if needed, seeing as how he hasn’t started and has pitched very little since the end of the regular season. Another thing to note is that St. Louis’ rotation is all right-handed, and the Red Sox were the best in baseball in OPS against righties.
Interestingly, however, Cardinals’ starters had a lower ERA (3.42 on FanGraphs) than the Red Sox did (3.84). They also walked fewer per nine innings, gave up fewer HR/9, and had a slightly lower WHIP. Is that a result of facing NL hitters instead of AL ones, and thus also pitchers instead of DHs? I don’t know, but I’m sure it played something of a factor– I’m going to guess that facing the Red Sox is quite different from facing the Cubs. Therefore, I’m not going to ignore the depth that the Red Sox have… although, again, this is by no means a clear advantage.
Advantage: Slight Boston.
Relief Pitching:
This is a push. Both bullpens are excellent, and after extensive research, I cannot honestly pick one of them. While the Red Sox bullpen has gotten all the attention, especially Koji Uehara, this forgets the depth that the Cardinals have with their young relievers, most notably Trevor Rosenthal.
Advantage: Push.
Defense:
Most agree that advanced defensive statistics (defensive WAR, UZR, etc.) favor the Red Sox here, and while admittedly they will end up having to use David Ortiz at first in St. Louis, I’m still going to give them the edge here.
Advantage: Boston.
Managers:
Another push. Neither John Farrell or Mike Matheny really stand out in a negative or positive way.
Advantage: Push.
Overall:
The Red Sox have the advantage in this series, both in most of the categories and also by having home-field. However, it’s close. Very close. I’m guessing that it’ll be the Red Sox in 7 games.
